Tyreek Hill Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Tyreek Hill

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-117/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -106 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to be a much bigger part of his team's pass game near the goal line this week (22.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.9% in games he has played).
Tyreek Hill has put up many more air yards this year (137.0 per game) than he did last year (104.0 per game).
Tyreek Hill's 78.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 66.1.
Tyreek Hill's receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Completion% increasing from 72.7% to 76.6%.
Tyreek Hill grades out in the 88th percentile among WRs when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an impressive 0.40 per game.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.6 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 5th-least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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