Tyreek Hill Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Tyreek Hill

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyreek Hill Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+154/-215).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -192 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -215.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Tyreek Hill has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 23.2% since the start of last season, which places him in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.
Tyreek Hill has compiled a colossal 104.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile among wide receivers.
Tyreek Hill's 66.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 94th percentile for wide receivers.
Tyreek Hill has been among the most reliable receivers in the NFL, catching a stellar 74.8% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 87th percentile among wide receivers.
Tyreek Hill ranks in the 91st percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 0.45 per game.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 118.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (60.9%) versus WRs since the start of last season (60.9%).
The New England Patriots defense has allowed the 8th-least passing touchdowns in the NFL to wideouts: 0.82 per game since the start of last season.