Tyquan Thornton Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Tyquan Thornton

NFL · Player Props

Tyquan Thornton

WR · New England Patriots

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 5:36 PM EST

Analysis

Tyquan Thornton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
At only 26.68 seconds per snap, the New England Patriots offense rates as the 5th-quickest paced in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year.
When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Kansas City's group of safeties has been very bad this year, ranking as the 5th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Patriots have been the 6th-least pass-focused offense in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 58.3% pass rate.
Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 33.2 per game) this year.
Tyquan Thornton has run fewer routes this season (47.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (70.0%).
The Patriots O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
With a feeble 1.3 adjusted receptions per game (21st percentile) this year, Tyquan Thornton stands among the bottom wide receivers in the NFL in the league.

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