Tyquan Thornton Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Tyquan Thornton

NFL · Player Props

Tyquan Thornton

WR · New England Patriots

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyquan Thornton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-115/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a big 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.83 seconds per play.
The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New England Patriots O-line has allowed their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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