Tyquan Thornton Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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NFL · Player Props

Tyquan Thornton

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyquan Thornton Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-112/-118).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a big 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.83 seconds per play.
The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.08 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in football.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New England Patriots O-line has allowed their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (3rd-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.