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Tyler Lockett

Tyler Lockett Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
Tyler Lockett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+135/-180).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +135.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Seahawks, who are -6-point underdogs.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to be the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The model projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.2 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • The projections expect Tyler Lockett to earn 6.8 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 78th percentile among wide receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Seahawks since the start of last season (just 54.8 per game on average).
  • Tyler Lockett has been a less important option in his offense's pass attack this season (17.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (23.0%).
  • The Seattle offensive line grades out as the worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all air attack stats across the board.

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