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Tyler Lockett

Tyler Lockett Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

New York Jets vs Seattle Seahawks

Tyler Lockett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-155/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 62.3% pass rate.

The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 130.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Jets, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 30.8 per game) this year.

Tyler Lockett has been a less important option in his offense's passing attack this season (14.6% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (23.0%).

The Seattle offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

Tyler Lockett's receiving skills have diminished this year, averaging just 3.4 adjusted receptions vs 4.7 last year.

The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (60.4%) versus WRs this year (60.4%).

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