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Tyler Lockett

Tyler Lockett Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos

Tyler Lockett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-138/+106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +112 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +106.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Tyler Lockett has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 22.6% last year, which places him in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.

With a stellar 4.7 adjusted catches per game (85th percentile) last year, Tyler Lockett has been among the leading pass-catching wide receivers in football.

Last year, the poor Denver Broncos pass defense has conceded a staggering 67.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 8th-highest rate in the league.

When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, Denver's LB corps has been awful last year, ranking as the worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's line indicates a running game script for the Seahawks, who are favored by 4.5 points.

The model projects the Seahawks to be the 10th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Seattle Seahawks are projected by the model to run only 62.2 offensive plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.

The Seahawks have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the league last year, averaging just 54.6 plays per game.

The Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in football last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

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