Tyler Lockett Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Tyler Lockett

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Lockett

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 10:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Lockett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.3% pass rate.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Lockett to total 7.4 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among WRs.
Tyler Lockett's 57.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 85th percentile for WRs.
Tyler Lockett has been among the best WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 5.2 receptions per game while ranking in the 91st percentile.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 4.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 5th-slowest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 29.01 seconds per play.
Tyler Lockett's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 75.8% to 72.8%.
The Carolina Panthers safeties project as the 7th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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