Tyler Lockett Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Tyler Lockett

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Lockett

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 19, 2023 1:16 AM EST

Analysis

Tyler Lockett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a running game script.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Seahawks to pass on 62.8% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest rate on the slate this week.
Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) generally mean increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the league (41.6 per game) this year.
In this week's game, Tyler Lockett is forecasted by the model to find himself in the 89th percentile among WRs with 8.2 targets.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Seahawks to run the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.2 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Seahawks this year (a mere 55.5 per game on average).
This year, the imposing Philadelphia Eagles defense has given up a mere 62.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 10th-lowest rate in the league.

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