Tyler Lockett Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Tyler Lockett

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Lockett

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 12:17 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Lockett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+116/-148).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be rolling with backup QB Drew Lock.
At a -14.5-point disadvantage, the Seahawks are big underdogs in this game, implying much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 66.6% of their opportunities: the highest frequency among all teams this week.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
In this week's contest, Tyler Lockett is projected by the predictive model to finish in the 88th percentile among WRs with 8.4 targets.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Seahawks to run the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The 8th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Seahawks this year (a measly 55.8 per game on average).
Tyler Lockett's receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 75.8% to 71.4%.
When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, San Francisco's unit has been great this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the league.

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