Tyler Lockett Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Lockett

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Lockett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+120/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Lockett to accumulate 8.6 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among wideouts.
Tyler Lockett's 61.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 88th percentile for wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Seattle Seahawks have called the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.
The Arizona Cardinals defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have utilized motion in their offense on 28.2% of their plays since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.