Tyler Lockett Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Lockett

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Lockett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run among all games this week at 132.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Lockett to garner 9.6 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Seattle Seahawks have called the 5th-least plays in football this year, averaging just 53.2 plays per game.
The New Orleans Saints safeties grade out as the 4th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Seattle Seahawks have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.