Tyler Lockett Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Lockett

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Lockett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+112/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +117 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Lockett to notch 7.2 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among wideouts.
Tyler Lockett's 57.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 85th percentile for wideouts.
Tyler Lockett has been among the best wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 5.3 receptions per game while checking in at the 89th percentile.
Tyler Lockett's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% rising from 69.4% to 76.5%.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.