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Tyler Lockett

Tyler Lockett Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Seattle Seahawks vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Tyler Lockett Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 22.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 60.5% of their plays: the 9th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the model to see 131.2 plays on offense run: the 5th-most among all games this week.
  • The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower run volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
  • Tyler Lockett's pass-catching efficiency has gotten a boost this year, accumulating 8.86 adjusted yards-per-target vs just 7.85 mark last year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Tyler Lockett has been much less involved in his offense's air attack this year (13.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (23.0%).
  • Tyler Lockett has compiled quite a few less air yards this year (53.0 per game) than he did last year (83.0 per game).
  • The Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
  • Tyler Lockett has notched significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (40.0) this season than he did last season (54.0).
  • Tyler Lockett is positioned as one of the weakest wide receivers in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 2.39 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 17th percentile.

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