Tyler Lockett Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Tyler Lockett

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Lockett

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Lockett Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-143/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 53.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 49.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.3% pass rate.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Lockett to total 7.4 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among WRs.
Tyler Lockett has accumulated a whopping 82.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 88th percentile among WRs.
Tyler Lockett's 57.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 85th percentile for WRs.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 4.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 5th-slowest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 29.01 seconds per play.
Tyler Lockett's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 75.8% to 72.8%.
Tyler Lockett's pass-catching effectiveness has declined this year, compiling a mere 5.51 yards-per-target compared to a 9.55 figure last year.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.49 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-least in the league.

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