Tyler Lockett Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Tyler Lockett

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Lockett

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 19, 2023 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Lockett Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 51.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 50.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a running game script.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Seahawks to pass on 62.8% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest rate on the slate this week.
Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) generally mean increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the league (41.6 per game) this year.
In this week's game, Tyler Lockett is forecasted by the model to find himself in the 89th percentile among WRs with 8.2 targets.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Seahawks to run the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.2 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Seahawks this year (a mere 55.5 per game on average).
Tyler Lockett's 8.2 adjusted yards per target this year signifies a noteworthy drop-off in his pass-catching skills over last year's 9.6 mark.
Tyler Lockett rates as one of the bottom wideouts in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 2.80 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 25th percentile.
The Eagles pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. wideouts this year, yielding 7.54 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-fewest in football.

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