Tyler Lockett Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Tyler Lockett

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Lockett

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Lockett Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 56.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 49.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Seahawks as the 8th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks offense has played at the 9th-fastest pace in the league (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
In this contest, Tyler Lockett is anticipated by the model to place in the 90th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 8.2 targets.
With an elite 23.9% Target Rate (87th percentile) this year, Tyler Lockett has been among the wideouts with the biggest workloads in the league.
Tyler Lockett has posted significantly more air yards this year (87.0 per game) than he did last year (82.0 per game).

Favors Under

Tyler Lockett's 8.2 adjusted yards per target this season reflects a significant decline in his receiving prowess over last season's 9.6 rate.
Tyler Lockett rates as one of the worst wideouts in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 2.87 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 23rd percentile.
This year, the tough Los Angeles Rams defense has conceded a meager 58.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 3rd-best rate in the league.
The Rams pass defense has exhibited good efficiency vs. wideouts this year, allowing 7.35 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-fewest in football.

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