Tyler Lockett Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Lockett

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM EST

Analysis

Tyler Lockett Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 65.5 (-139/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 57.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 65.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 9th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Tyler Lockett has run a route on 92.4% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 91st percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
Tyler Lockett's pass-game efficiency has tailed off this year, totaling a mere 8.63 yards-per-target compared to a 9.86 rate last year.
Tyler Lockett's ability to pick up extra yardage has declined this season, averaging just 2.62 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 3.74 mark last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.