Tyler Lockett Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Tyler Lockett

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Lockett

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Lockett Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 60.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 65.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 60.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.7% pass rate.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Lockett to total 8.2 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile among wideouts.
Tyler Lockett's 56.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 84th percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Tyler Lockett has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this year (82.0 per game) than he did last year (100.0 per game).
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.40 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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