Tyler Lockett Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Lockett

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Lockett Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 65.5 (-140/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 64.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 65.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.0% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 10th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.52 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Lockett to garner 7.8 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile among wideouts.
Tyler Lockett's 57.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 85th percentile for wide receivers.
The Seattle Seahawks O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Seahawks are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Tyler Lockett has totaled far fewer air yards this season (81.0 per game) than he did last season (100.0 per game).
Tyler Lockett has been among the weakest WRs in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.13 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 21st percentile.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.