Tyler Lockett Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Tyler Lockett

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving TD

Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 9:06 PM EST

Analysis

Tyler Lockett Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+134/-184).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +178 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +134.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
Tyler Lockett's 61.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 88th percentile for wide receivers.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Seattle Seahawks have called the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.
Tyler Lockett has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this year (92.0 per game) than he did last year (100.0 per game).
The Arizona Cardinals defense has allowed the 3rd-least passing touchdowns in football to wide receivers: 0.50 per game this year.
The Arizona Cardinals defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.