Tyler Lockett Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Lockett

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Lockett Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+165/-215).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Tyler Lockett has accumulated a whopping 100.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among wideouts.
Tyler Lockett's 62.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 89th percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

The Seattle Seahawks have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 53.3 plays per game.
The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone for it on 4th down a measly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have utilized motion in their offense on 28.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.