Tyler Lockett Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Lockett

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving TD

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Lockett Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-200).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.62 seconds per play.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Lockett to be much more involved in his team's pass game near the end zone this week (19.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.8% in games he has played).
Tyler Lockett has compiled significantly more air yards this season (105.0 per game) than he did last season (100.0 per game).
Tyler Lockett's 66.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 91st percentile for wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals defense has given up the 4th-least TDs through the air in football to wideouts: 0.40 per game this year.
The Arizona Cardinals pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks have incorporated motion in their offense on 28.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.