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Tyler Lockett

Tyler Lockett Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 13

Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks

Tyler Lockett Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+150/-209).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +157 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 9th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.38 seconds per snap.

The forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Tyler Lockett's sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Completion% increasing from 69.4% to 76.2%.

Tyler Lockett grades out in the 94th percentile among wideouts as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.55 per game.

The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-highest Completion% in football (71.3%) vs. WRs this year (71.3%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Seahawks are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.

Tyler Lockett has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (83.0 per game) than he did last season (100.0 per game).

Tyler Lockett's 56.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 63.7.

The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

The Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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