Tyler Lockett Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Tyler Lockett

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 3:11 PM EST

Analysis

Tyler Lockett Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+207/-313).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -290 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -313.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 137.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Tyler Lockett has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 15.8% this year, which ranks him in the 75th percentile among wide receivers.
Tyler Lockett's 59.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 88th percentile for WRs.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Seattle Seahawks have run the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 54.9 plays per game.
Tyler Lockett has put up quite a few less air yards this season (84.0 per game) than he did last season (100.0 per game).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (60.8%) vs. wideouts this year (60.8%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks project as the 3rd-best collection of CBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.