Tyler Lockett Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Tyler Lockett

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Lockett

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving TD

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 11:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Lockett Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+221/-343).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +275 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +221.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Tyler Lockett has totaled a colossal 100.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 96th percentile among wide receivers.
Tyler Lockett's 63.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 92nd percentile for wideouts.
Tyler Lockett grades out in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 0.50 per game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have called the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in football.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (61.1%) to wideouts since the start of last season (61.1%).

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