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Tyler Johnson

Tyler Johnson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 11

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Rams

Tyler Johnson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 59.6% of their plays: the 8th-highest frequency on the slate this week.

At only 28.08 seconds per play, the Los Angeles Rams offense is positioned as the 9th-fastest paced in football (in a neutral context) this year.

With an exceptional 7.29 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (92nd percentile) this year, Tyler Johnson stands among the top pass-catching WRs in football in the open field.

This year, the poor Patriots pass defense has been gouged for a massive 69.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 5th-highest rate in the NFL.

When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, New England's unit has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 3rd-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is implied by the Rams being a 4-point favorite in this week's contest.

The leading projections forecast Tyler Johnson to be a much smaller part of his team's passing attack in this game (2.8% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (9.8% in games he has played).

The Los Angeles Rams O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

The Patriots pass defense has performed very well when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.66 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-fewest in football.

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