Tyler Higbee Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Tyler Higbee

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Higbee

TE · Los Angeles Rams

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 26, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Higbee Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-140/+110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Rams as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects Tyler Higbee to accumulate 5.5 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among tight ends.
Tyler Higbee has been a big part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 19.0% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
Tyler Higbee has been among the leading pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 4.2 receptions per game while checking in at the 94th percentile.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Rams to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense results when facing windier conditions this week.
The Los Angeles Rams O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

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