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Tyler Higbee Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-110/-120).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to have 135.4 offensive plays called: the 3rd-most on the slate this week.The Rams have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.6 plays per game.The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.Tyler Higbee has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (80.4% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (69.7%).The leading projections forecast Tyler Higbee to earn 4.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 4.5-point advantage, the Rams are favored this week, indicating more of a reliance on running than their normal approach.Tyler Higbee's receiving talent has diminished this year, totaling a mere 2.8 adjusted receptions vs 4.4 last year.Tyler Higbee profiles as one of the worst possession receivers in football among tight ends, catching a measly 65.7% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 13th percentile.The New Orleans Saints pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (69.1%) versus tight ends this year (69.1%).When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New Orleans's unit has been great this year, profiling as the 6th-best in the league.
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