Tyler Higbee Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Tyler Higbee

TE · Los Angeles Rams

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Higbee Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-160/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to total 6.8 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
Tyler Higbee has been an integral part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 20.5% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 98th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Rams have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 54.4 plays per game.
The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced pass game efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (68.8%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (68.8%).
The Seattle Seahawks safeties profile as the 2nd-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.