Tyler Higbee Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Tyler Higbee

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Higbee

TE · Los Angeles Rams

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Higbee Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+120/-166).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +108 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -166.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 66.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to notch 7.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
Tyler Higbee has been much more involved in his offense's air attack this year (21.6% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (15.5%).

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Rams offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Tyler Higbee's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 74.6% to 63.9%.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the 10th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Los Angeles Rams have incorporated play action on just 21.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
The Los Angeles Rams have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 14.7% of the time since the start of last season (4th-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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