Tyler Higbee Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Tyler Higbee

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Higbee

TE · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Higbee Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (+106/-146).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 66.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to notch 7.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
Tyler Higbee has been much more involved in his offense's air attack this year (21.6% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (15.5%).

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Rams offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Tyler Higbee's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 74.6% to 63.9%.
Tyler Higbee's pass-game efficiency has diminished this year, accumulating a mere 5.68 yards-per-target compared to a 7.11 mark last year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has surrendered the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 42.0) versus tight ends this year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.78 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in football.

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