Tyler Higbee Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Tyler Higbee

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Higbee

TE · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Higbee Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+252/-411).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -308 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -411.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Tyler Higbee has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 16.7% this year, which puts him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
Tyler Higbee has notched a colossal 24.0 air yards per game this year: 80th percentile among tight ends.
Tyler Higbee's 40.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 30.2.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Rams offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Tyler Higbee's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 74.6% to 63.9%.
Tyler Higbee grades out in the 1st percentile among TEs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a measly 0.00 per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the 10th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Los Angeles Rams have incorporated play action on just 21.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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