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Tyler Higbee

Tyler Higbee Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams

Tyler Higbee Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+252/-411).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -308 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -411.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Rams are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Tyler Higbee has been a big part of his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 16.7% this year, which puts him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.

Tyler Higbee has notched a colossal 24.0 air yards per game this year: 80th percentile among tight ends.

Tyler Higbee's 40.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 30.2.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Los Angeles Rams offensive line ranks as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Tyler Higbee's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 74.6% to 63.9%.

Tyler Higbee grades out in the 1st percentile among TEs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a measly 0.00 per game.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the 10th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

The Los Angeles Rams have incorporated play action on just 21.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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