Tyler Higbee Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Tyler Higbee

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Higbee

TE · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Rams vs Carolina Panthers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Higbee Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+165/-225).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Tyler Higbee has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 23.1% this year, which places him in the 95th percentile among TEs.
Tyler Higbee has totaled a colossal 35.0 air yards per game this year: 89th percentile among tight ends.
Tyler Higbee's 47.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 30.2.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has yielded the highest Completion% in football (86.5%) versus TEs this year (86.5%).

Favors Under

The Rams are a heavy 10-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams offense to be the 10th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 28.74 seconds per play.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
Tyler Higbee's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.6% to 71.0%.
Tyler Higbee ranks in the 1st percentile among tight ends as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging just 0.00 per game.

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