Tyler Higbee Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Tyler Higbee

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Higbee

TE · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Rams vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Higbee Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+205/-285).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 41.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
Tyler Higbee has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 25.0% this year, which ranks him in the 96th percentile among tight ends.
Tyler Higbee has posted a colossal 35.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Rams are a 5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line profiles as the worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Tyler Higbee ranks in the 1st percentile among TEs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a lowly 0.00 per game.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has conceded the least TDs through the air in the league to tight ends: 0.00 per game this year.
The Dallas Cowboys safeties project as the 6th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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