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Tyler Higbee

Tyler Higbee Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 4

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams

Tyler Higbee Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+208/-319).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +220 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +208.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Tyler Higbee has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 22.2% this year, which places him in the 95th percentile among TEs.

Tyler Higbee has notched a colossal 30.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 84th percentile among tight ends.

Tyler Higbee's 42.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 30.2.

The Los Angeles Rams offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

The Los Angeles Rams O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.59 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Los Angeles Rams have run the 2nd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a mere 57.2 plays per game.

The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense results when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.

Opposing QBs have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: least in the league.

The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has conceded the 9th-lowest Completion% in the league (68.5%) versus TEs since the start of last season (68.5%).

More Tyler Higbee Player Props

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