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Tyler Higbee

Tyler Higbee Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 3

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams

Tyler Higbee Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+174/-250).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +192 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +174.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Tyler Higbee has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 30.8% this year, which ranks in the 98th percentile among tight ends.

Tyler Higbee has posted a colossal 32.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 85th percentile among TEs.

Tyler Higbee's 32.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 86th percentile for TEs.

The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 3rd-slowest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 28.46 seconds per play.

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the NFL.

Tyler Higbee's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.6% to 67.0%.

The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (66.1%) versus TEs since the start of last season (66.1%).

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