Tyler Higbee Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Tyler Higbee

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Higbee

TE · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving TD

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 20, 2022 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Tyler Higbee Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+413/-905).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -875 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -905.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Tyler Higbee has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 16.7% this year, which places him in the 84th percentile among tight ends.
Tyler Higbee's 34.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 87th percentile for tight ends.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has allowed the highest Completion% in football (79.1%) vs. TEs this year (79.1%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have called the least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 55.9 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in football.
Tyler Higbee has accrued significantly fewer air yards this year (21.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).
The Los Angeles Rams O-line ranks as the worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

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