Tyler Higbee Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Tyler Higbee

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Higbee

TE · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Rams vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 9, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Higbee Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+270/-469).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +352 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +270.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
Tyler Higbee has been a big part of his team's pass game near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 17.6% this year, which puts him in the 86th percentile among TEs.
Tyler Higbee's 36.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 31.4.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 55.9 plays per game.
Tyler Higbee has accrued quite a few less air yards this year (22.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).
The Los Angeles Rams O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Tyler Higbee's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.6% to 62.3%.

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