Tyler Higbee Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Tyler Higbee

TE · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Higbee Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+270/-454).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +277 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +270.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to be a more important option in his team's passing offense near the goal line this week (19.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (14.3% in games he has played).
Tyler Higbee's 36.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 30.2.
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line has allowed their QB 2.59 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 6th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
Tyler Higbee has put up quite a few less air yards this season (21.0 per game) than he did last season (30.0 per game).
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Tyler Higbee's possession skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.6% to 66.4%.