Tyler Higbee Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Tyler Higbee

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Higbee

TE · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Tyler Higbee Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+381/-784).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -428 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -784.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
Tyler Higbee has been a key part of his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 15.4% this year, which places him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
Tyler Higbee's 36.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 30.2.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has yielded the 2nd-highest Completion% in the NFL (83.6%) vs. tight ends this year (83.6%).

Favors Under

The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 9th-least total plays on the slate this week with 63.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Tyler Higbee has notched significantly fewer air yards this season (21.0 per game) than he did last season (30.0 per game).
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line grades out as the worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Tyler Higbee's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.6% to 62.7%.

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