Tyler Higbee Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Tyler Higbee

TE · Los Angeles Rams

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 8, 2022 11:47 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Higbee Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+247/-393).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -341 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -393.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to run the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 64.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
Tyler Higbee has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 18.9% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 89th percentile among TEs.
Tyler Higbee has accrued a whopping 30.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 82nd percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has yielded the 7th-lowest Completion% in the league (65.6%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (65.6%).
The Buffalo Bills defense has yielded the 3rd-least passing TDs in the league to TEs: 0.18 per game since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills safeties rank as the best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Los Angeles Rams have used play action on just 21.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.