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Tyler Conklin

Tyler Conklin Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills

Tyler Conklin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+120/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (36.8 per game) this year.

Tyler Conklin has run fewer routes this year (86.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (67.7%).

The model projects Tyler Conklin to earn 4.1 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

The Jets offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Tyler Conklin profiles as one of the top tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging an exceptional 4.3 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the New York Jets as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to see just 123.6 total plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.

The fewest plays in the league have been called by the Jets this year (a lowly 46.2 per game on average).

The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

Tyler Conklin's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 74.3% to 69.2%.

More Tyler Conklin Player Props

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