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Tyler Conklin

Tyler Conklin Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

New York Jets vs Denver Broncos

Tyler Conklin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-132/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -132.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 4th-most pass-heavy team in football (63.1% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the New York Jets.

New York's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially deflated (and rushing stats propped up a bit) as a result of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL. We should be able to expect some regression with improved conditions in this week's contest.

Tyler Conklin rates in the 85th percentile when it comes to tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) with a staggering 32.9 figure since the start of last season.

Tyler Conklin has been one of the top pass-catching tight ends since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 3.4 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 83rd percentile.

Tyler Conklin's receiving reliability have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 74.3% to 79.5%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Jets, who are favored by 6 points.

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Jets are forecasted by the model to run only 62.8 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-lowest number on the slate this week.

The Jets offensive line grades out as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.

The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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