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Tyler Conklin

Tyler Conklin Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

Tennessee Titans vs New York Jets

Tyler Conklin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-185/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -170 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -185.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the New York Jets as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

New York's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially too low (and rushing stats inflated) on account of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league. We should be able to expect some correction with better weather in this game.

Our trusted projections expect Tyler Conklin to accumulate 4.0 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 76th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Tyler Conklin's 33.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 85th percentile for TEs.

With a fantastic 3.6 adjusted receptions per game (82nd percentile) last year, Tyler Conklin has been as one of the leading pass-game tight ends in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is implied by the Jets being a 4-point favorite this week.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The New York O-line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.

The Titans safeties grade out as the 6th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in defending receivers.

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