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Tyler Conklin

Tyler Conklin Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets

Tyler Conklin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-135/+105).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -10-point disadvantage, the Jets are massive underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a focus on throwing than their normal game plan.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jets to pass on 62.9% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week.

The Buffalo Bills defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (36.0 per game) this year.

Tyler Conklin has gone out for fewer passes this season (82.3% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last season (67.7%).

This week, Tyler Conklin is expected by the projections to rank in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs with 3.9 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have just 127.0 total plays called: the fewest among all games this week.

The Jets have called the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.9 plays per game.

The weatherman calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

The Bills pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (72.1%) versus tight ends this year (72.1%).

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