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Tyler Conklin

Tyler Conklin Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

Tyler Conklin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-185/+140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -170 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jets will be forced to use backup quarterback Trevor Siemian this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

In this contest, Tyler Conklin is anticipated by the projection model to slot into the 82nd percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.9 targets.

Tyler Conklin's 34.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 87th percentile for TEs.

Tyler Conklin grades out as one of the leading pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a stellar 3.7 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 81st percentile.

When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, New England's unit has been dreadful this year, projecting as the 6th-worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Jets to pass on 60.7% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest rate on the slate this week.

Our trusted projections expect the Jets to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

As it relates to protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Jets profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year.

This year, the formidable New England Patriots defense has yielded a puny 69.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 7th-best rate in the league.

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