Tyler Conklin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Tyler Conklin

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Conklin

TE · New York Jets

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 5:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Conklin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +132 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -7-point disadvantage, the Jets are enormous underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.9% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
The projections expect Tyler Conklin to garner 5.0 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 81st percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Tyler Conklin slots into the 88th percentile when it comes to tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) with an astounding 34.4 figure this year.
Tyler Conklin profiles as one of the leading pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging a fantastic 3.6 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 81st percentile.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the New York Jets are anticipated by the predictive model to call only 63.3 total plays in this game: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The New York Jets have called the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.9 plays per game.
When talking about pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the New York Jets ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Miami's group of safeties has been exceptional this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in football.

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