Tyler Conklin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Tyler Conklin

NFL · Player Props

Tyler Conklin

TE · New York Jets

Receptions

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Tyler Conklin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-105/-124).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -106 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
The New York Jets have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved offense performance when facing better conditions in this week's contest.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Tyler Conklin has run a route on 72.1% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 91st percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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